Uncertainty: Mother of all Professions

Posted: December 11, 2009 in entrepreneurship, finance, insurance, mind, profession, uncetainty

Yesterday I received a call from Bharti AXA Life Insurance, the telecaller was trying to sell me some life insurance products. The telecaller was marketing his products using the springboard of Uncertainty of life. Even though none of his arguments were able to convince me to buy any of his products, but the word “Uncertainty” rendered me thinking.

Googling about the insurance sector, I came across a report published by India PRwire, which states that the Indian life insurance market generated total revenues of $41.36 billion in 2007, the revenues may reach to a value of $65.96 billion by the end of 2011.[http://www.indiaprwire.com/pressrelease/insurance/200805079347.htm]. These figures provide some insight into the cost associated with uncertainty.

While thinking about uncertainty and insurance sector, I zeroed to the very fundamental question: Why one buys an insurance product? The answer was quite simple, to mitigate future uncertainties, and secure ones future from ill effects of uncertainty. Whole of the insurance sector is thriving on this word uncertainty. Thinking even deeper I realized that not only the insurance sector, but whole of the financial sector is eating of this very uncertainty. What does the financial analysts, I-bankers or other financial industry professionals do? They just try to bridge the gap between this uncertainty and its counterpart certainty using various financial models and tools, conducting various fundamental and technical analysis. They just try to predict the future valuation of an asset, which is an outcome of the response of world comprising millions towards this asset.

Digging even more, I realize that not just the financial sector, if you look around, you would realize that everyone in this world is eating of this very uncertainty. Just think of a situation that if you know with certainty that your fever will go in 2 days on its own, will you ever consult a doctor? If human response to various situation can be predicted with certainty, will there be anything called psychology. I being a Patent professional thrive on the uncertainty of whether a patent will be granted or not, whether a patent will be invalidated by a competitor, or does a product infringe a patent or not. These are the uncertainties, which I try to conquer. Biggest gambler in the game of this uncertainty is an Astrologer, who tries to predict the most uncertain thing: The Future. The Future is something absolutely uncertain which no statistical model or tread analysis can predict.

Looking into the life of world’s well known and successful entrepreneurs, one can contemplate that all of them have made one or the other uncertainty, a less uncertain. Bill Gates of Microsoft had addressed the uncertainty, which exists in 1990s, of user-friendly operating system. Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google had made uncertainty associated with effective search and retrieval of information a less uncertain. Same is the case with Orkut and Facebook which had brought people closer and mitigated the uncertainty of meeting long lost high school sweetheart. Last but not the least Warren Buffett, the legendry investor, had made his fortune fighting against the uncertainties of investments.

All of this points to the fact that “Where there is an uncertainty these is a professional”. And a successful professional is one who makes the world a pinch less of uncertain. So all aspiring entrepreneurs just look around and try to spot uncertainties. If you can spot one unidentified uncertainty before any other can, you can be the next Bill Gates.

A thought provoking question, just imagine a certain world, where you can see everything in Black and White. Where you can predict everything, even your CAT results, would you have gone through the trauma associated with CAT- 2009? Whether that telecaller had ever called me?

  1. Dev says:

    There is a better way of utilizing uncertainities to make a fortune and that is :: Think of an uncertainity which may not even be of slightest concern of normal people …and make everyone beleive that without answer to your new found uncertainities , everyone’s life is miserable ; absolutley worthless . If you can do this , you can not just be next Bill Gates but you can be the one whom even Bill Gates will look forward to imitate 😛

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